I love reverse logic and I love getting a deal. I think, then, that I will keep driving low mileages in my economical petrol car.
I live on the edge of Greater London and consciously chose a home that is easy walking distance from two train stations, plus has good bus service. When I moved here I did buy a car, knowing I would only drive it occasionally. In fact, I only now drive less than 4,000 miles a year.
Knowing this, I did look at EVs and Hybrids, but the closer I looked, the more I realised that the carbon cost of EV manufacture then ultimate battery disposal is very high, so it is lower cost to the planet for low mileage drivers to actually drive a petrol car with good fuel economy. I, therefore, bought one such vehicle and have averaged over 50mpg on long journeys and around 35mpg on short town trips. BTW don’t get me started on hybrids, as the more I researched them the more they appear to be the worst of all worlds.
Ok, so far, so virtuous, huh?
Well, until I read a recent piece by Tim Harford, called: “Buy a coal mine, drive a gas guzzler, and other uses of reverse logic“, in which I saw this:
All this set me wondering about other problems we could fix by reversing the usual logic and doing the exact opposite of what one might expect. Here’s a thought: environmentalists should fight climate change by buying coal mines. Coal is the most carbon-intensive of all mainstream fuel sources, so any response to climate change is going to involve closing coal mines. An environmentalist organisation could do this by buying them and shuttering them.
This idea was proposed in 2012 by the economist Bård Harstad. Another economist, Alex Tabarrok, recently pointed to a coal mine for sale for less than $8m in West Virginia. It had 8 million tons of coal reserves, capable of producing about 20 million tons of carbon dioxide. Preventing the emission of several tons of CO2 per dollar spent is an insanely good deal. The idea only works if people don’t open new coal mines in response to the demand, but why would they? Coal mining is a dying industry. If you can mothball a mine for a few years, the chances are it will stay closed for ever.
During the switchover to electric vehicles, a similar logic applies to old cars. If you drive, but only a little, there is something to be said for buying an ageing gas-guzzler. Better for a thirsty old car to do 1,000 miles a year in your hands than 10,000 miles a year in someone else’s.
I love reverse logic and am a big fan of a great proponent of it, Rory Sutherland, as I wrote about here in 2019 in: “Answer questions – by imagining the situation in reverse”
So, to Tim’s latest thoughts, that last part really got me thinking, so I set to some more research. I bought a one-year-old car some 18 months ago for £13,650. Due to supply chain issues, the UK is now seeing a strange situation in that used cars are going UP in value, so I checked. My car is worth at least 14,000 miles even though I have driven it (a little) and it is now 18 months older. Great, I can sell it for a profit now. Weird, but great.
So, as a low mileage driver, what kind of “gas guzzler” could I buy to reduce carbon emissions from that specific vehicle by simply driving it less than the previous owner. In London the answer is obvious. Two months ago London activate their long-heralded “ULEV Zone” extending to the “North and South Circular” roads a zone where only ULEVs (Ultra Low Emission Vehicles) may drive without paying a £12.50 per day charge. This has seen values of older cars drop as they can no longer be used to drive “into town” (I live at the edge of London, well outside the ULEV zone).
I then looked at this further, as the obvious economic choice is then to buy a car just old enough to be non-compliant with ULEV regulations. Hmm, this is where I found out that the current definition of “Ultra Low Emission” is a transitional one (to be polite). Almost any petrol car made since 2006 is ok, and any diesel made from 2016 onwards. Yep, your big-engined diesel guzzling over-sized Mercedes SUV is “ultra-low emission” as long as it was made from 2016 onwards.
Anyway, I went ahead and looked online and indeed saw that I could buy a 2015 diesel equivalent of the car I currently have for less than my current car (a 2019 petrol model), however, the pricing doesn’t really seem to have been impacted by the ULEV zone pricing.
I love reverse logic and I love getting a deal. I think, then, that I will keep driving low mileages in my economical petrol car, at least up until London tightens up the ULEV regulations, at which point pricing for diesel cars REALLY drops. When you see me driving an older diesel car you will know I’ve found that sweet spot of reverse logic and economics!