In our increasingly “VUCA” Covid world (see this post), we can feel a little powerless about the unpredictability of major events, or Black Swans, but we can “Do More”.
Black Swans and Grey Swans
On March 8th, 2020 I published a post called “Act Now“, imploring leaders of businesses to, well “Act Now” rather than wait, as the impact of Covid was already clearly going to be massive. Nicholas Nassim Taleb originated the term Black Swan and defined it as being an event that is a) unpredictable, b) rare, and c) of high impact.
In my post I referred to the idea of a Black Swan and his full definition, then asked “To what level can we predict such events?“, noting that:
“We can look at the circumstances and environments that can lead to events of “rarity” and “extreme impact”. We can also, to reference another book by Taleb, look to be “Anti-Fragile“, to be resilient both in looking to predict rare and extreme impact events and also in how quickly and effectively we are able to respond when they occur.”
Fast forward to this year and I have joined the fascinating “Grey Swan Guild“. So, what is the difference between a Black Swan and a Grey Swan? Simply put, a Black Swan cannot be predicted, but a Grey Swan is predictable. The definition used by GSG: A “grey swan” is a term used to describe a potentially very significant event that is considered unlikely to happen but still possible. As there is a slight chance the event will occur, it should be anticipated, particularly as it could shake up civilization, the world economy, culture, marketplaces, workplaces and life.
Who are the Grey Swan Guild?
Grey Swan Guild is a Global Network of Leaders, Thinkers, Change Agents, Sensemakers, Futurists, Innovators and Curious Others. We believe the path ahead is better than the way behind, but only by working together can we find it.
The Grey Swan Guild was created to find that way forward and generate ideas to support rebuilding a better human experience, sensemaking a clearer patterns and meaning and getting ahead of the future. We were formed out of the pandemic to inspire to world to think differently. Our ongoing aim is to surface, inspire, and invite additional evidence-based intelligence, perspectives, learning experiences, contributions and business activation from those who are committed to affect and influence positive change across the globe.
I absolutely love this, the idea that we can look at the Grey Swans as a collective and first “sensemake” then look at what can be done in the face of these massively impactful future events. We do and will live in an increasingly VUCA world, so rather than feel powerless, we can empower ourselves to make sense and then lead change.
Now, what do the Grey Swan Guild define a Guild to be in this modern sense?: “A “guild” is an organization of persons with related interests, goals etc. especially one formed for mutual aid or protection.” I love that too, then the cynic in me poses the question “what can be done to make sure this is more than a talking shop or think tank” as yes, I am action-oriented 😉
So, this week I was on a Grey Swan Guild event centring on London as one of their core focus cities, I look forward to being part of this group as we seek to help “Sensemake” the Grey Swans facing our world. The picture above was on the deck during that event and I loved it as their mantra as to how we can each “Do More” and so play an active part as members of the guild, turning thought into action.
Do more than belong: participate. Do more than care: help. Do more than believe: practice. Do more than be fair: be kind. Do more than forgive: forget. Do more than dream: work.
William Arthur Ward